Skip to content

BON TV: Real Estate Bubble in China?

February 1, 2010

Anyone who’d like a reasonably quick and easy to digest summary of my take on China’s real estate market might want to check out this two-part (30 minute each) interview that aired this weekend on Blue Ocean Network (BON), a brand new English-language channel focused on China.  You can view Part 1 here and Part 2 here.


Some of the topics we tackled include:

  • What is a bubble?
  • What are the signs that there might be a real estate bubble in China?
  • What factors are driving China’s property prices upwards?
  • Why are so many apartments, offices, and malls lying empty and idle?
  • How are China’s residential and commercial real estate markets different, and why does it matter?
  • What impact have China’s stimulus efforts had on property markets?
  • How exposed is China’s state-owned banking system to a property bubble?
  • What is the government doing to rein in real estate markets, and how effective are these policies likely to be?
  • Is China, as some argue, another Dubai waiting to happen?
3 Comments leave one →
  1. Bob_in_MA permalink
    February 1, 2010 11:51 pm

    I was just reading a related article at Caixin, “Lending Takes a Dip After PBOC’s Moves,” that contained this gem:

    “However, some local governments appear to be ignoring the mandate. In a city in southwestern China, local bank branches with aggressive lending were rewarded with generous bonuses. The branches of the central bank and the CBRC (China Banking Regulatory Commission) in the city were also given bonuses comparable to bank officials.”

    The regulators received bonuses based on the aggressive lending by banks. hmmm… That’s one we haven’t tried here in the U.S.

    It also contained this:

    “Meanwhile, banks are reluctant to tighten mortgage lending, fearing that market share may be grabbed by rivals. An official with CITIC Bank told Caixin that it still gave a 70 percent discount on mortgage loan interest and only tightens loans for a borrower’s second apartment. ”

    Does anyone here know what do they mean by “a 70 percent discount on mortgage loan interest?”

  2. February 2, 2010 5:09 pm

    Did you see the speech Han Han’s gave at Xiamen University (

    “On the issue of whether China has truly risen up economically, I think we should wait until the real estate industry collapses because we cannot tell right now.”

    My thoughts exactly.


  1. TIME on China’s Property Bubble « Patrick Chovanec

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: