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Data Points and Article Links 6/10/12

June 10, 2012

I’ve been on the road (in China and the US) for the past two weeks.  I’ll have some more substantive thoughts to share on this blog soon, but in the meantime, here are some interesting data points and article links I’ve been sharing via Twitter @prchovanec:

  • (Jun 11) China Bsn News: heavy truck makers may have to slash production 60-70% in 2H, due to rising inventories, low demand
  • (Jun 11) China Bsn News: auto dealers under serious cashflow stress due to mounting inventories, despite May surge in sales
  • (Jun 11) Did “high-ranking Beijing official” hit up Las Vegas Sands for $300 million bribe?
  • (Jun 9) May saw modest China property rebound but given supply side dynamics, not at all convinced market has “bottomed”
  • (Jun 8) Caixin reports 88.2b yuan in munibonds from 2008 stimulus set to expire this summer this should be interesting
  • (Jun 8) Signs of stimulus: MOR says investment in railways up 16% May over April (still down 20% yoy)
  • (Jun 8) Beijing Daily: “Chinese media interested in negative news have been seduced into wrongdoing by Western concepts”
  • (Jun 8) @austinramzy is right on social discontent, but consider this:
  • (Jun 8) Walter & Howie in WSJ: “Beijing Rearranges the Financial Deck Chairs” Good stuff from guys who know their stuff
  • (Jun 8) WSJ: “Metal Piles at China Ports Signal Growth Sputter”
  • (Jun 8) Oriental Morn Post: Inner Mongolia property developer commits suicide, unable to repay underground loans
  • (Jun 7) General manager of contractor that built most of China’s high-speed rail network detained for corruption
  • (Jun 7) China Daily: “High inventory levels signal weaker demand”
  • (Jun 7) Erickson & Collins have great write-up in WSJ on China’s oil ambitions in South China Sea
  • (Jun 7) Funding for new China nuclear plant signals end to post-Fukushima building freeze
  • (Jun 7) Caixin: land transfer fees for top 10 cities down 50% in May y-on-y, land area sold down 31%
  • (Jun 7) China Daily: “Steel industry readies for project surge” Stimulus as deus ex machina
  • (Jun 7) Huawei denies big layoffs, but expert says market demand “lagging far behind previous expectations”
  • (Jun 7) China may offer 5x current market price to start importing US natural gas
  • (Jun 7) FT: Chinese buy concrete mixers on credit to use as collateral for further loans, most are never even switched on
  • (Jun 7) FT: Zoomlion racks up equip sales by aggressively extending credit, but will it ever get paid?
  • (Jun 7) FT: Growing worry that construction equip-maker Zoomlion sitting on massive debt bubble; “pretend and extend”
  • (Jun 7) 30+ Panamax ships floating off China coast unable to sell loads of coal; situation “very bad and getting worse”
  • (Jun 7) FT looks at overcapacity, “collapse” in China’s heavy equipment-making sector
  • (Jun 7) Inventory at China auto dealers rose from 45 days in April to >60 in May; dealers “backs are broken”
  • (Jun 6) Caixin: Despite stimulus, new loans by China’s Big Four banks down in May due to weakening credit demand
  • (Jun 6) Just what China needs: less reliable auditors subject to more domestic pressures
  • (Jun 6) Regulators see “contradiction” between surge in risky loans and decline in NPLs but add it’s no big deal
  • (Jun 6) China Daily (!) reports CBRC says bank’s NPL figures “do not add up”
  • (Jun 6) Public Security Bureau estimates there are 3.8 million empty apartments in Beijing
  • (Jun 5) Declining returns to credit: Fitch says each yuan in new financing yields only 0.39 in new GDP in 2012 versus 0.73 pre-crisis
  • (Jun 5) interesting graphic on where (and why) China’s elite send their children to study abroad
  • (Jun 5) Watch this trend: China banks may do debt-equity swap to bail out huge Tianjin LGFV
  • (Jun 5) Caixin more info on AgBank scandal: money missing, secret stashes, murky connection to army general – the usual
  • (Jun 5) Bob Kaplan in The Atlantic on the strategic love-hate triangle btw Vietnam, China, and US
  • (Jun 5) 21 Ctry Bus Herald: 1/8 of China’s wind power generated in 2011 was not used, not connected to grid
  • (Jun 5) 21 Ctry Bus Herald: Zhejiang province fiscal revenues down -0.1% in April, +5.2% YTD down starkly from +29.6% 4M 2011
  • (Jun 5) 21 Ctry Bus Herald: China coal inventories rise to 27 days, similar high as late 2008
  • (Jun 5) Oriental Morn Post: Some China banks have not classified RE developer loans as NPL even tho repayment is overdue >90 days
  • (Jun 4) Final Shanghai Index decline has now mysteriously changed from 64.89 to 63.85 on several (but not all) sites
  • (Jun 4) Shanghai Index drops bizarre 64.89 points on anniv of June 4 ’89 Tiananmen crackdown, censors block searches
  • (Jun 2) Chinese developer builds exact replica of Hallstatt – Austrians miffed
  • (Jun 2) Nuclear power likely to be key beneficiary of China stimulus effort, after Japan quake hiatus

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